I got into a twitter discussion about a blog post that was challenging the idea that China is seeming a “renewables revolution”. I do not claim to be a China expert, and I hope I do not qualify as an insta-expert/pundit. However, I can read a spreadsheet.
The blog post compared the growth in solar and wind in 2014 to the average growth in total primary energy consumption averaged over the last decade. I argued that one data point was not a good way to judge a “revolution”, much less discern a trend.
Trying to be proactive, rather than argumentative, I produced the data I thought should be in the post from the same data source.
This chart shows the percentage of the growth in China’s primary energy consumption that is being met by new wind and solar sources (according to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2015)
Before 2005, effectively none of the growth in energy use in China was being met by new wind and solar generation. In 2013, about 12 percent of the growth was provided by new wind and solar resources. In 2014, that figure was about 11.5 percent. So the share of China’s growing energy consumption that is provided by new wind and solar is definitely increasing, and hence so is total wind and solar production as a share of total consumption (1.4 percent in 2014 according to BP).
Here’s another way to look at it: in 2000, wind and solar production in China was basically zero. In 2014, production from wind and solar sources in China was more than the total annual energy consumption of twenty six countries listed in BP’s data book (including developed countries like Kuwait, Austria, Switzerland, New Zealand and Denmark). So the solar and wind generators in China can now provide the equivalent of all the energy (including equivalent of fuels for transportation and heating, not just electricity) required to power a small, modern western European country.
Is this a “revolution”? I’ll leave that to others. I’d say the growth of solar and wind production in China is very, very strong. Of course, the growth in total energy consumption in China is very, very strong also.