Going green but getting nowhere

A sobering Op-Ed by Gernot Wagner in the NYT.  This link deserves it’s own post.

Leading scientific groups and most climate scientists say we need to decrease global annual greenhouse gas emissions by at least half of current levels by 2050 and much further by the end of the century. And that will still mean rising temperatures and sea levels for generations.

So why bother recycling or riding your bike to the store? Because we all want to do something, anything. Call it “action bias.” But, sadly, individual action does not work. It distracts us from the need for collective action, and it doesn’t add up to enough. Self-interest, not self-sacrifice, is what induces noticeable change. Only the right economic policies will enable us as individuals to be guided by self-interest and still do the right thing for the planet.

Every ton of carbon dioxide pollution causes around $20 of damage to economies, ecosystems and human health. That sum times 20 implies $400 worth of damage per American per year. That’s not damage you’re going to do in the distant future; that’s damage each of us is doing right now. Who pays for it?

We pay as a society. My cross-country flight adds fractions of a penny to everyone else’s cost. That knowledge leads some of us to voluntarily chip in a few bucks to “offset” our emissions. But none of these payments motivate anyone to fly less. It doesn’t lead airlines to switch to more fuel-efficient planes or routes. If anything, airlines by now use voluntary offsets as a marketing ploy to make green-conscious passengers feel better. The result is planetary socialism at its worst: we all pay the price because individuals don’t.

It won’t change until a regulatory system compels us to pay our fair share to limit pollution accordingly. Limit, of course, is code for “cap and trade,” the system that helped phase out lead in gasoline in the 1980s, slashed acid rain pollution in the 1990s and is now bringing entire fisheries back from the brink. “Cap and trade” for carbon is beginning to decrease carbon pollution in Europe, and similar models are slated to do the same from California to China.

Alas, this approach has been declared dead in Washington, ironically by self-styled free-marketers. Another solution, a carbon tax, is also off the table because, well, it’s a tax.

Never mind that markets are truly free only when everyone pays the full price for his or her actions. Anything else is socialism. The reality is that we cannot overcome the global threats posed by greenhouse gases without speaking the ultimate inconvenient truth: getting people excited about making individual environmental sacrifices is doomed to fail.

British Columbians are happy with their carbon tax

From the Vancouver Sun,

Residents of the sole North American jurisdiction with a carbon tax don’t seem to mind their singular tax status, a new poll suggests.

The Pembina Institute reported on Thursday that 74 per cent of residents of British Columbia, where the provincial carbon tax gets another uptick today, believe either that the tax has been positive for the environment, or feel neutral about it.

The poll was conducted in April by Strategic Communications with a sample of 830 British Columbians, and bears a margin of error of 3.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

“According to the poll, the majority of British Columbians (69 per cent) are worried about climate change and most (70 per cent) want the province to continue showing leadership on the issue without waiting for other jurisdictions to take similar steps,” says a news release accompanying the poll.

By 2012, a typical motorist would pay about $140 (Canadian) more annually with the tax.

Study: city dwellers produce as much CO2 as countryside people do (but urban form still matters)

A new study of two metro areas in Finland proclaims to “illustrate that the influence of urban density on carbon emissions is insignificant”.  This study was published in Environmental Research Letters.  You might remember other studies that seem to indicate the opposite.

The idea that urban form has a significant impact on emissions and therefore should be considered during planning and land use decisions is embraced by many urbanists, environmentalists and scholars.  Others disagree with this position, saying us “sanctimonious urbanites“ may be overplaying our hand.  I don’t think this latest report really does anything to resolve the “GHG blame game” (or, as I prefer to call it, an accurate accounting of externalities).  In fact, if you look at the data, it supports the notion that land use and transportation decisions and patterns have a significant impact on emissions.  While trying to avoid sanctimony, let’s look at the details.

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Minnesota GO: 50-year trends presentation

MN/DOT is conducting a process, which they’re calling Minnesota GO, to develop a 50-year vision for all types of transportation in the state .  I was asked to present in April at an advisory group meeting, and I talked about 50-year trends from a planner’s perspective.

The advisory group video page has some other great presentations from folks who more accurately fit the title of “expert” like Michael Noble on energy and Michael Huber on health.  The video interview page also has some good ones, including David Levinson and Frank Douma.  While you’re at the site, don’t forget to put in your two cents.

How the bicycle economy can help us beat the energy crisis

Elly Blue at Grist has a very interesting series on “bikenomics”, exploring the impact of bicycling on economics, both micro and macro.  Her post on the economic case for on-street bike parking is great, and should be made into a flyer and sent to all small businesses in Minneapolis.  Her latest post deals with “the energy crisis”, meaning generally addiction to oil, high gas prices, and environmental externalities of fossil fuel use.

There’s no easy way out at this point. But if we approach energy as a transportation issue rather than a geopolitical one, we can at least start to see a way through it.

Instead of pushing gas prices back to even more artificial lows, we need to invest that money that is normally all tied up in oil into bikes … and places to ride them.

Bicycling makes a lot of sense in a landscape built for cars. Bikes are fast and flexible enough to fill the gap between transforming spread-out driving destinations to walkable, accessible communities. With 40 percent of our driving trips spanning less than two miles, the distances are feasible — so long as the roads aren’t designed to be terrifying.

It takes minimal investments, mostly in mitigating the effects of sharing space with motor vehicles, for bicycling to almost overnight become a convenient and attractive choice for many, many people.

She does conclude by saying that nothing can save us from our energy crisis (although the bike will help us get through it with “grace”).  But how much impact could it really have?  The statistic she cites – 40 percent of our driving trips span less than two miles – seems amazing.  What if we could convert some of those trips of that to a bike or walking?

According to the Metropolitan Council’s latest Transportation Behavior Inventory survey, the average household makes 10.3 motorized trips per day. Perhaps 9 of these trips include an automobile.  3.6 trips per day (40 percent of 9) at 2 miles is 7.2 miles per day.  Using average mileage, that is 116 gallons or $465 per year per household (at today’s gas prices).  Not a huge amount, but enough for perhaps a nice weekend vacation with the family.  As a region though, that’s about $500 million per year.  Not too shabby.  Plus, that $500 million isn’t going to countries we don’t like, much of it will likely circulate in the local economy.  That’s also 130 million fewer gallons of gasoline burned and 1 million fewer metric tons of CO2 released into the atmosphere, which is about 5 percent of the emissions from gasoline in Minnesota every year.

So if we can take the shortest of our short trips by bike instead of car, will we have an impact?  Not huge, but definitely measurable.  Of course, the above are numbers for just a few of the benefits, Blue offers many more.  I feel out of my depth trying to answer questions about if and how we could do it, but the most recent numbers for the Twin Cities show only cycling and telecommuting growing in mode share, so I’d venture an “it’s possible”.

Location Efficiency is More Important than Home Efficiency for Energy Savings

 

An EPA-supported study shows that if you’re concerned about energy use from urban development (in this case, residential buildings), you should look at location efficiency first, rather than building efficiency.  The study describes location efficiency this way:

Housing that is located in a walkable neighborhood near public transit, employment centers, schools, and other amenities allows residents to drive less and thereby reduces transportation costs.  Development in such locations is deemed to be “location efficient,” given a more compact design, higher-density construction, and/ or inclusion of a diverse mix of uses.

As the graph above shows, locating housing in location-efficient neighborhoods has a greater impact on the combined housing-transportation energy use than improving the performance of buildings and automobiles.  EPA says that locating homes in these areas, where some automobile trips can be replaced with transit or other transportation modes, lead to reductions in household energy use of 39 to 50 percent.  While I’m a little hesitant about the study’s assumptions of a 45 percent reduction in vehicle miles in TOD neighborhoods, the larger point is still valid: location has a large impact on energy use by urban development, larger than is often assumed, and deserving of more attention than it’s given.

The study uses energy consumption data for housing and transportation that was collected as national averages, not for any particular location.  The “energy-efficient” homes data was based on Energy Star homes.  So, of course, results from specific regions or cities may vary.  Also, Energy Star is not the most energy efficient way to build a home, but it’s relatively affordable and has large market share compared with other home rating systems.

While location efficiency may be more important than building efficiency in terms of energy savings, it’s obviously a more complicated and politically charged topic than building energy efficiency.  Improvements to buildings bring nearly immediate and focused benefits to owners, while decisions about density and location have benefits which are more widely distributed and whose paybacks accumulate over a longer period.  Matthew Lister, who works for the firm that prepared the study, told Environmental Building News we shouldn’t just focus on the energy savings, though:

“The underlying story is about quality of life.” The choice to live in a densely settled, mixed-use neighborhood, Lister argues, is not just about saving money or even the planet; it’s about “less time in the car and access to more choices,” as well as more work opportunities. The report also touches on social equity, he said. “People have to drive further and further out so they can afford a house,” but then end up “shackled to two car payments,” which raises the effective cost of their housing.

Dutch Cabinet Approves Kilometer Tax

The Dutch Cabinet approved legislation Friday that would tax drivers per kilometer driven.  Parliament still needs to pass it before it can become law.  Ownership and sales taxes on autos would be abolished.  The cost per kilometer will vary depending on the size of the car and the engine.  By 2018, the average cost will be 6.7 Euro-cents per kilometer.  Gas tax will still be collected.

Mileage will be calculated by a GPS system made mandatory in each car, initially paid for by the government.  The Transport Ministry says this move could cut carbon dioxide emissions by 10 percent, and reduce congestion.

This system is similar to something being tested in Oregon with a small group of volunteers.  According to ODOT’s report, the system is largely successful, despite privacy concerns.

From Autopia, The Truth About Cars.

Dakota County Adopts Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target

Lebanon Hills Visitor Center - A LEED Certified Dakota County Building

Lebanon Hills Visitor Center - A LEED Certified Dakota County Building

Dakota County is the first county in Minnesota to complete an greenhouse gas emissions inventory for government operations and adopt a target for reductions.  Now the County has the beginnings of a plan to get there as well.

I am happy to say that I was heavily involved in the process to develop this plan for reductions and bring it to review and adoption by the County Board.  Our 15% reduction target for 2015 matches those adopted by the State of Minnesota, Hennepin County and the Midwest Governors Accord.  The plan includes energy efficiency improvements to buildings, improving fleet efficiency, exploring renewable energy alternatives and reducing employee commute impacts.  We will also be completing a county-wide emissions inventory, likely in 2010.

We believe the 15% reduction is totally doable, and will likely even save the County money.  However, even after tons of research, I can still say that the devil will be in the details, and the next year will be challenging.  Wish us luck!

Nate Silver bets money on climate change: no takers

Nate Silver, tired of hearing people equate weather with climate change, has laid down the (money-filled) gauntlet.  For every day that the temperature in your hometown is 1 degree below average, he will pay you $25.  If it’s 1 degree above average, he will pay you $25.  Daily winners and money are totaled on a monthly basis.

As a commenter notes, Nate is not trying to address the actual climate change argument, just straightforwardly challenging the ability of individuals being able to “feel” changes in the climate on a local level, especially given the limits of selective memory.

The contest was open until the 20th (Monday) and it appears no one took him up on it.  I’d love to see him extend the challenge longer to see if he would get any takers.