duluth flood - mpr

National Climate Assessment: trouble ahead

duluth flood - mpr

A draft of the US National Climate Assessment was released about a week ago, and the outlook for changes headed to the Midwest and country as a whole is not good.  Minnpost has a good look at the Midwest section (emphasis mine):

Climate change will tend to amplify existing risks from climate to people, ecosystems, and infrastructure in the Midwest. Direct effects of increased heat stress, flooding,

drought, and late spring freezes on natural and managed ecosystems may be altered by changes in pests and disease prevalence, increased competition from non-native or opportunistic native species, ecosystem disturbances, land-use change, landscape fragmentation, atmospheric pollutants, and  economic shocks such as crop failures or reduced yields due to extreme weather events.

These added stresses, when taken collectively, are 

projected to alter the ecosystem and socioeconomic patterns and processes in ways that most people in the region would consider detrimental.

Much of the region’s fisheries, recreation, tourism, and commerce depend on the Great Lakes and expansive northern forests, which already face pollution and invasive species pressure – pressures exacerbated by climate change. Most of the region’s population lives in urban environments, with aging infrastructure, that are particularly vulnerable to climate-related flooding and life-threatening heat waves.

CC Midwest temp rise

Over at MPR, Paul Huttner also has a good overview, highlighting the coming “climate shock” of project 5-degree warming headed to Minnesota.

 

Bottom line?

This magnitude of warming will likely cause some dramatic… and potentiallyalarming changes in our Minnesota Landscape.

Our forests will shift north. Pine forests may dissapear, and transition to hardwood forests in significant sections of northern Minnesota.

Prairies will also overtake areas that are now forested…possibly even the parts of Twin Cities metro.

Increases in the frequncy of extreme rainfall events will create more events like the multiple “500 to 1,000 year” flood events seen in Duluth and southern Minnesota in the past 9 years.

The changes we’re already observing in Minnesota will continue…and the pace of change is likely to quicken in the next 30 years. Our children will live in a very different Minnesota than our parents did.

How are we doing to address this challenge?  Haven’t US greenhouse gas emissions gone down recently?  Yes, but unfortunately not enough, and we can’t just worry about US emissions.  From the report’s mitigation section (emphasis mine):

Even absent a comprehensive national greenhouse gas policy, both voluntary activities and a variety of policies and means at federal, state, and local levels are currently in place that lower emissions. While these efforts represent significant steps towards reducing greenhouse gases, and often result in additional co-benefits, they are not close to sufficient to reduce total U.S. emissions to a level consistent with the B1 scenario analyzed in this assessment. 

And remember, hitting that B1 scenario is critical if we want to avoid the most dangerous impacts and potentially runaway climate change.  For more on what the world might look like if we stay on the emissions path we’re on, take a look at the World Bank’s most recent report on 4-degree warming.

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